Scotland's Coefficient... Should We Be Worried?

Gavin Noon from Scotland's Coefficient - the mathematical genius of Scottish football - joins us for a special episode. 

Who is qualifying for Europe next season and how many rounds do they have to play before reaching the tournament?

Could Celtic really be six games away from UEFA's lowest competition?

And what is this anomaly that could see Rangers fans backing Shakhtar Donetsk when they take on Crystal Palace this week?

00:00: Intro

00:39: Where we stand, in a nutshell

01:40: Domestic v International coefficients

03:15: Can we ever turn this around again?

08:33: Smaller teams representing Scotland, is it good or bad?

12:50: How many games Hearts, Celtic, Rangers, Motherwell, Hibs and/or Dunfermline potentially face next season in Europe.

15:58: Rangers could qualify for the Champions League automatically...

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:02

Right, we're at that stage of the season where we're starting to calculate who's qualifying for what in Europe. But what a headache that's proving to be. So instead of us breaking it down, who better to do the honours than Gavin Noon from Scotland's coefficient? Gav, thanks for joining us today. Um, and just to kick us off, can you give us just a little bit of an oversight of where are we just now? What's the lay of the land for this country in terms of coefficient? What's going on? Just kind of in a nutshell before we start breaking it all down.

SPEAKER_02 0:39

Yeah, good morning. Thanks for having me on. So in a nutshell, it's not good news. So we're as we got as high as ninth in the rankings, and that was only a few years ago, and we'd slowly but surely dropped down to 18th. So we went from ninth to eleventh to fourteenth and now eighteenth. And initially dropping from ninth to 11th wasn't great because it meant that the champions no longer automatically got straight into the Champions League. It didn't really bother anyone else in the country apart from the Champions, and at that time that was Celtic every year. So Celtic felt a knock-on from that, as in they had to start playing qualifiers as of last summer. But this most recent drop, going from 15th to 18th, is going to be felt by everybody because anyone that wants to get into Europe is going to be affected by us being so lowly ranked by UEFA.

SPEAKER_00 1:27

Just to clarify before we go any further, this is for um club football that does not cross over with international football. And is this the whole of Europe? Is this like every UEFA um country and team that's involved?

SPEAKER_02 1:40

Yeah, so totally distinct to the national team, which has got the FIFA world rankings. So FIFA have their own sort of coefficient calculator, I suppose you could call it, where they bring into effect uh how important the game was. Was it a friendly or was it a World Cup final? The World Cup final is worth more points. And they also do um how difficult was your opponents. So if you're ranked 100th and you beat someone that's fourth, you'll gain loads of points, and the the country that was fourth will lose a lot. Whereas if you're ranked 100th and you lose to a team that's ranked fourth, you don't lose that many points because it's seen as a game you were meant to lose. So the FIFA rankings are probably fairer in that regard, I suppose, but they've got nothing to do with club football, which is administered by UEFA, and they've got the UEFA rankings. And yes, that involves all 55 leagues and all clubs within those 55 leagues that have been in Europe in the last five years. So we will have a ranking for Rangers, Celtic, Aberdeen, Hearts, Hibs, St. Miren, anyone that's been in Europe in the last five years, as soon as they've not had European football for five years, they are no longer in the rankings. So when they rejoin, so Motherwell, for example, are hopefully going to get in Europe this summer. I think that will be them rejoining, having not been in Europe for five years. So they will be ranked with 20% of the nation's total, so 20% of Scotland's total. So if your own club and ranking isn't enough to put you on that rankings board, you don't start with zero points, you start with 20% of your country.

SPEAKER_01 3:18

We try and be as optimistic as we can be about Scottish football, um but obviously, like you're kind of saying that this is us moving into a much more challenging, difficult area now that we're dropping to 18th in the ranking. What's the likelihood of Scotland as a country being able to start moving back up that table now? And just as a kind of secondary question, are clubs from countries like Scotland at a bit of a disadvantage? Because I know that there are certain um elements of the coefficient that can be affected by automatic uh uh qualification into group stages of tournaments and things like that. So it it feels to me like it's slightly more weighted to clubs that will perennially be involved anyway. They're kind of giving a leg up to help them maintain that, um not just as clubs but as countries as well.

SPEAKER_02 4:12

Yeah, well, there's two key aspects to what you said there. It absolutely is designed, I suppose, to maintain the status quo. So the teams at the top of the rankings, that's England, Spain, Germany, and Italy, have been there for 25 years or whatever, and they'll always finish in the top two. So, like you say, automatic qualification guarantees you X number of matches and it guarantees you coefficient points that you're gonna earn. So even if England or Germany or Italy had some of their teams having a bad season, they will have so many teams in Europe that they're gonna maintain that high ranking. So it's completely unattainable for anybody to sort of break in. Beyond that, you've got France who are pretty good recently, like PSG just won the Champions League. They're not gonna break into that top four either. And then below that, you've got the likes of Portugal and Belgium. No matter what they do, they will never break in to that elite, um, almost guaranteed, which means they'll always be limited to just one automatic Champions League place. Whereas, as we're seeing this season, England at the top of the rankings are gonna have four, five, maybe even six Champions League automatic places, depending on who wins the competitions. So, yes, it is weighted for the nations at the top because they'll always be earning points no matter how poor a season their respective clubs have. Um, but as you come further down to where we are kind of at, which is aiming for the top 10, unlikely to get there in the next sort of 10 years, but really needing to stay inside the top 15. So there's two aspects to it. Dropping out means that we'll have more qualifiers, and the nation's coefficient earns points in qualifiers. So where Celtic were benefiting from automatic Champions League qualification, if they then had a bad Champions League campaign, they've not earned very many points. Whereas, just take Rangers as an example, if they had four rounds to reach the the same competition and then have a poor campaign, they've at least banked all those points. So the season where they both got into the Champions League in 22-23, I think it was Celtic only got two points, two draws against Shaktar, and Rangers got no points. Rangers actually earned more points towards the country's coefficient because they had to beat PSV, I think it was, in the qualifiers to get there. So the qualifiers are helpful because it means there's more matches that generate points. Now the points in qualifiers are worth half as much, so they're not as lucrative, but it is helpful. So in the past, sorry, in the past where we've um dropped out the rankings, we've been able to climb back up fairly quickly because we've been able to win the qualifiers and Rangers in Celtic could do it on their own. The only two teams getting into the group stages every year is doing all right, and that brought us up the rankings. But this is the first time we've dropped out since the introduction of the Conference League. So having a third tournament means that all our peers, all our rival nations across Europe, that previously, if they had lost in a Europa League qualifier, that was them out of Europe, they're now dropping into the conference league, and every nation has taken advantage of that. So Poland are a key rival of ours now. They had, I think, four teams get out of the conference league phase. And winning a match in the conference league is worth the same number of coefficient points as winning a match in the Champions League. So they have absolutely rocky stead up the rankings to the point we're not going to be able to catch them for a few years. So for us to rise up the rankings, as everybody says, like the coefficient cyclical, it goes in cycles, you are likely to climb back up. That is only true if we have more than just Rangers and Celtic getting into these competitions. We're going to need Hearts, Hibs, Motherwell. You're going to need at least two teams, I think, getting into the conference league and then getting out. So finishing in the top 24. We are unfortunately the only country that hasn't had uh within a sort of band of nations that we're competing with. We're the only one that hasn't actually got out of the conference league into the group stage. So, yeah, long answer to your question. Yeah, it's weighted to those at the top. At our level, it's helpful to have more matches, so more points, but we need to take advantage of that and have um more than just two teams actually winning matches and going forward.

SPEAKER_01 8:29

Uh well that that was something I wanted to ask you about because I it it seems to me that there's there's almost a bit of a vicious circle that that happens, which is say I and historically it has obviously been Rangers and Celtic that have predominantly won the points in the coefficients. But say the point where there were four Scottish teams qualifying for the tournament, uh the various tournaments, uh and then I I think uh Rangers performance in particular kind of spiked it, which boosted the country's coefficient to a point where there were additional places, so we moved from four teams to five teams. But sometimes those teams that are now entering European competition don't really have the experience of playing uh at that level or that type of football. Um I even see sometimes being used to that type of officiating, whereas they might get away with stuff in Scotland they don't in Europe and they can fall at the first hurdle often, which obviously is detrimental to the overall coefficient. Is it something that's a bit of a vicious circle like that where almost like the better we do um the more teams will qualify, but it really needs those teams to be hitting the ground running and performing straight away in order to maintain or even strengthen our coefficient as a country?

SPEAKER_02 9:42

Yeah, it's a really good point. So the fundamental to it is that a coefficient point is uh whatever you earn, so you win earn two points for a win. That's divided by the number of teams you entered in Europe at the start of the season. So even if they're out now, however you entered at the start. So when Scotland enters five teams, a win is two divided by five, zero point four points. When we enter four teams, which will be the case as of next summer, a win is then worth slightly more. So it's now worth 0.5 points, so a little bit more. And the points you raise are all totally spot on in terms of efficiency in the experience of being in Europe. But the main thing for me is like budgetary. So they they know that by getting to the league phase, they're going to earn five million pounds. And to some of our clubs, Sit Marin, for example, that's like nearly a whole year's turnover. But they can't they can't put their wage bill up to one that's going to compete in European football based on having three qualifiers in one season because they know it's unlikely they're going to get there again. Aberdeen or Hearts, who have sort of traded um the automatic state uh automatic entry to the the conference league over the last few years, they probably could, so they've all sort of raised their wage bills, knowing that it is likely that they're going to be challenging for Europe regularly. But take Dunfermline this season, they're in the Scottish Cup final. If they win that, they are our third entrant entrant. So they enter at the third highest stage of the five countries we enter. Yeah, if they reach the league phase, they'll earn another another five million, they'll earn at least a million in the qualifiers. But we can't expect Dunfermline to raise their wage bill by three, four, five million in the hope that right then they get promoted at the championship, then they build next season to go again for European football. It just isn't going to happen. So while I'm always a supporter of all clubs and I want everybody's fan base to experience what St. Murray got last year, what or two years ago, what Dundee United got last year, what Dunferman maybe might get this summer, what Motherwell will get this summer. That's superb for those fan bases. But yeah, from a coefficient point of view, if they're just going to go in, not have the budget, not have the experience, not used to that level of competition and lose after a couple of games, then yeah, it is detrimental to the coefficient, I suppose. The only way around it for a nation like us is that we just continue to rise the standard of the league. So we continue to increase the broadcasting deals, the sponsorship, everything gets bigger. So everyone's sort of baseline in terms of what they spend on players and the quality of the division is higher, so that when Dundee United or St. Mirren enter into Europe, it's not a concern because they're playing at a decent enough average. So yeah, it can be detrimental, but hopefully in time uh the game continues to improve. We have three horse title races every year, which will raise interest and bring more money. And then the saying of a rising tide lifts all boats or whatever, everybody's just a little bit better anyway. Money flows through the game better, and hopefully we can then have have everybody sort of competing. But yeah, totally get your point that when we have the five teams in, the fifth team rarely gets gets more than a round or two.

SPEAKER_00 12:50

Let me look to next season then, Giv. Um, and kind of humor me here as I try and work this out. But tell me if where we are in terms of each position, right? So whoever wins the league, the champions go into the Champions League playoff round, is that correct?

SPEAKER_02 13:06

Yeah, so if we're talking about next season as in the qualifiers and this summer, then yeah, that's exactly right.

SPEAKER_00 13:13

That's so two games. That that's two well, yeah, we'll we'll get to that in a minute. But yeah, so that's two games to qualify for the competition. Second place going to the Champions League second qualifying round. So that's six games that they have to qualify. Now Scottish Cup winners, if it is Dunfermline, go into the Europa League third qualifying round, so that's four matches to qualify. And then as a result, if it is Dunfermline, third sorry, yeah, third place and fourth place, so Celtic and Motherwell as it stands right now, would go into the Conference League second qualifying round, which is six games to qualify. Is that correct?

SPEAKER_02 13:59

You absolutely nailed you absolutely nailed all of that. Yeah. So where you're saying six games, that's obviously three ties where they play two games and a tie. So yeah, yeah, spot on. And the key thing to the scenario you've just described there of Dunferlin win the cup is that fifth in the league, Hibs as it stands, wouldn't enter in Europe. So we would be replacing Hibs essentially with Dunfermline as one of our European entrants.

SPEAKER_00 14:23

So then if Celtic do win the league, uh sorry, if Celtic do win the cup my this is where my brain stops. So Celtic win the cup, they go in as well it depends if they win the league, doesn't it? If they win the cup but they do not win the league, they go into the Europa League qualifiers. And then it goes down. And then it goes down to Motherbull and Hibbs in that case for the other two places.

SPEAKER_02 14:50

Yeah, exactly right. So for Celtic, they would be hoping that come the Scottish Cup final, it doesn't matter because in terms of Europe, because they've finished in the top two. As you rightly said, the top two enters in the Champions League qualifiers. From a Celtic point of view, third and winning the cup is Europa League, third and not winning the cup is Conference League, because then Fermland would have the Europa League. So yeah, you've you've absolutely nailed it. That's what's on offer at the end of this season for the qualifiers in this summer, unless it's Rangers that win the league.

SPEAKER_00 15:21

That just before we go into Rangers, that is a wild fall for Celtic. If they come third or don't win the cup, to go into the Conference League second round qualifying after being in the Champions League, uh they are a Champions League team, but to play six uh games to qualify for Europe that sorry, that's just wild. That just shows to me the fall. I guess the fall they've had this season, but also the fall just in general. But yeah, let's go on to this weird anomaly. Um Finn, you're more across this than me, aren't you?

SPEAKER_01 15:52

Uh well yeah, I mean you ended your your um answer there, Gav, by saying unless Rangers win the league. So there is a really peculiar anomaly that I'm wondering if you can kind of explain in terms of next season, which is um and this only applies to Rangers, it doesn't apply to Hearts or Celtics should they win the title, but there is a chance that Rangers can gain direct entry into the Champions League group stage. Is that correct?

SPEAKER_02 16:19

Yeah, so previously, if uh the Champions League winner automatically qualified for next year's Champions League through their domestic league, i.e. they finished in the top four in England or whatever, then they vacate a space because there's a uh the the holders are automatically re-entered in the competition. Previously, that was always given to the country in 11th, so it didn't matter the clubs within it. Whoever won the league in um the 11th ranked league got this spare slot. But when they reformatted the group stages, made the league phase and everything, one of the changes they did was that they felt that that penalized big clubs in smaller divisions, and Shaktar Donetsk are probably a key example of that, especially since the war. Ukraine have really slipped down the rankings, but Shaktar are a huge team. So because Ukraine are not going to get back to 11th in the rankings, that door was closed for Shaktar as an example. So they've changed it to make it that it's the champion with the highest coefficient, irrespective of where your league ranks. Your league could be ranked 50th. As long as you are the the top ranking in terms of UEFA's coefficient, uh, you would get that vacated spot. So the Cause Rangers' last five years in Europe have been like historic in terms of uh they've never had this consistent run of doing so well in Europe. They reached the Europa League final five seasons ago, so that's still within their coefficient. They got to the quarterfinals last year uh out of the league phase the year before that. So they've done really well. Uh, they are actually right up there as one of the top ranked champions. However, Olympiakos are ranked above them. So if Olympiakos win the Greek league, everything we're about to discuss is null and void because it will go to Olympiakos, regardless if Rangers win the league or not, because Olympiakos would be the highest ranked champion. Olympiakos are five points off the off the top spot in Greece at the time of recording, and so they may not win the league, which means it would then drop to the next champion. That would be Rangers if they win the Scottish Premiership, then that's all well and good for Rangers, you're automatically into the Champions League. However, Shaktar Donetsk are still in Europe, so they can still earn some more points, and they're really close to Rangers now. They're only three coefficient points behind Rangers. So it's two points for a win and one point for a draw. They've got a Conference League semi-final coming up against Crystal Palace. So they have to put Crystal Palace out and reach the Conference League final, but it it's possible that would then have them above Rangers in the rankings. So the same thing would then apply. Shaktar have to win the Ukrainian League. And they're they're only joint top at the time of recording with about eight games left. So again, it might not transpire that Shaktar win their league, but if they do and they're above Rangers, the point, the entry point would go to them. So to summarise, yeah, Rangers could get automatic Champions League uh qualification. They'd have to win the Scottish Premiership first. Olympiakos would have to not win the Greek League, and then either Shaktar don't win the Ukrainian League or don't earn three coefficient points across the semi-final to overtake Rangers in the rankings.

SPEAKER_00 19:31

Just quickly on the maths there for Shaktar Denesk against Palace, do they only get enough points if they reach the final or if they win the Conference League final, or is like one victory out of the three enough?

SPEAKER_02 19:45

So they're exactly three points behind, and the tiebreaker when two clubs or two nations are have the same points in a over a five-year period is how many points were earned in the most recent season. And Shaktar obviously are in a semi-final, Rangers got pumped out in the league phase. I can't remember what position they finished. So Shaktar would win any tiebreaker if they're on exactly the same uh amount of points, and they're three points behind with two for a win and one for a draw. So if Crystal Palace put um Shaktar out, then they won't catch Rangers. Shaktar could reach the final through two draws, so they could draw both legs and go through on penalties, that would only be two points. There's then a 0.5 bonus for reaching the final, so at that stage they would still be 0.5 points behind Rangers, and therefore they would have to at least draw the Conference League final after 120 minutes. That's when the coefficient is taken. It doesn't matter the result of penalties. So yeah, they need three points across the remaining potentially three games, and if they reach the final, it's likely that they've done it by winning one leg and at least drawing the other. So they would probably have done it by the time they reach the final. But of course, there is a chance that they they get to the final and only earn two and a half points, and at that stage they would then need to not lose the final to overtake Rangers. So it's all ifs and buts, but this has been since the start of the season, this has been a possibility. So tracking it for like 15 clubs, now we're just down to the last ones. Well, Olympiakos winning Greece, and well Shaktar beat Crystal Palace essentially.

SPEAKER_01 21:24

Do you think there's going to be a a case maybe where we see a spike in sales of AK Athens and Crystal Palace shirts in the kind of governary of Scotland?

SPEAKER_02 21:33

Maybe not shirts, but I imagine folk will definitely be watching. And uh it's interesting, Olympiakos are only kind of falling behind because they just lost to I think it was the AK Athens who signed the left back from Hearts last summer, so that was quite an interesting connection. Yeah. Obviously, one of the teams is it Panathon Icos maybe signed Syrial Dessers from Rangers, so he's over there as well. So there's a lot of sort of interesting stories in there, but as it stands, from a hopeful. Point of view for Rangers, uh Olympiaquis are not in pole position in that country, so that that's good news for them.